Get ready for a perfect storm of discontent

06/23/2022 06:30

As the 2008 rally fights the regimes, we will now experience new political consequences that will be shaped by the new inequalities created by Covid-19 and the new needs of global capital. Of course, we also have a stake in our account here.

Get ready for a perfect storm of discontentPeople around the world are rising up against hunger, poverty and tyrannical systems. (Photo: UAV)

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“Get ready for a perfect storm of discontent around the world.” The two-century-old global insurance monopoly Allianz says this in its latest report to warn companies. He talks about a global ‘cost of living crisis’. The main concern of the report is what the political consequences of this might be and how this will be managed.

Capitalists often have a clearer conscience than those who speak for them. An imaginary democracy, law, politics, economics, etc. instead of arguing about it; they depart from the current reality of capitalism; they mainly ponder the ways in which they manage the consequences of capitalism’s destructiveness. The Allianz report, which predicts that there will be political instability and civil unrest in at least 75 countries over the next period, has this clarity.

So what is the reality of global capitalism now, according to the Allianz report?

CIVIL UNEQUAL IS DANGEROUS THAN TERRORISM!

The report titled “The Cost of Living Crisis and Civil Unrest” was prepared by Martin Tietz, senior director of the Division of Terror and Political Violence, and Scran Todorovic, head of crisis management. The main question of the report published last week is: What kind of political and social consequences will the great thaw that started with Covid-19 have? The answer is clear: transcending borders, ideological affiliations; A new wave of unrest is coming that can easily spread with the unstoppable power of social media behind it.

The report’s conclusions are as follows:

•Civil unrest is increasingly a more critical issue than terrorism for many companies.

Cases of social unrest are unlikely to abate anytime soon, given the aftershocks of Covid-19, the cost-of-living crisis and the ideological shifts that continue to divide societies across the world.

• Middle-income countries that were able to provide social protection during the pandemic but will now have trouble sustaining this level of spending as the cost of living increases are high-risk locations.

•Companies must be vigilant and identify clear paths to scale-down and response that anticipate and avoid the potential for damage to business and personal property.

The emphasis on social media is also important: “The influence of social media networks is playing an increasing role in mobilizing protesters and intensifying social unrest. Geography is not an obstacle either. The nature of threats of political violence is changing as some democracies become unstable and some autocracies heavily crush dissent. As social media now facilitates rapid action by protesters, unrest can break out in multiple places at once.”

In short, the priority of global capital is how to manage the political instability caused by inequalities that have peaked and surrounded all but the richest strata of society. This is not an issue that can be overcome simply by creating new alternatives to power and giving it electoral legitimacy. The pandemic is not just seen as a health problem. Indeed, the consequences it creates in terms of the supply chain, which is the heart of global capital accumulation, and the necessary labor regime, are far more urgent than health. There is an elusive contradiction between stabilizing supply chains and addressing inequalities. It is not possible to reach both at the same time.

Because, at the stage that capitalism has arrived, a dissolution that may extend for years has accelerated extraordinarily by being squeezed into a few years. For example; The liquidation of small property in favor of large property, the transfer of wealth between classes, as a historical trend of capitalism, gained an unparalleled speed with the pandemic. The world’s mood of mourning for the ‘middle classes’, once considered one of the hallowed halos of liberal democracy, has something to do with this. And with its crisis of representation…

The political polarization and economic inequalities created by the 2008 crisis have reached their peak. Even if right-wing populist governments and the ‘middle regimes’ they built, which are products of social reactions to the aftermath of this crisis, do not function as they did before, the conditions that gave rise to them are even more radicalized. Indeed, thanks to the adaptive capacity of populism, governments can become radicalized to the same extent. Except for the alternative orientations of Latin American countries in struggle and organized, with a political-cultural formation, whose economic direction is still uncertain, and currently limited to the political field, there is no way to completely overcome the political consequences of 2008. The pandemic, the war Russia-Ukraine, food and energy problems, etc. forces the map of supply chains, namely the international division of labour, to change. Anyway, the warning from the Allianz report is right here. A new international division of labor is taking hold. We know from the history of capitalism that when the division of labor changes, what matters is political stability, which means the same, stability and security of the labor regime.

In short, as the 2008 rally fights the regimes, we will now experience new political consequences that will be shaped by the new inequalities created by Covid-19 and the new needs of global capital. Of course, we also have a stake in our account here.

This change in global conditions should not be overlooked when looking at Turkey, whose hope of ridding itself of a quarter-century of power rests on the urn that will open one night and the strong position of different political actors as a castle gate. . There is a lot of talk about an “irrational” government disconnected from the reality of the world, but it is still a mystery to what extent the opposition captured this “rationality”.

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